LIFE ODDS:
MANY years ago Ernie Kovacs had a comedy routine in which an insurance agent calls on a home owner and asks how he would like to buy an insurance policy from being attacked by a Gorilla during a snow storm. The man breaks out in laughter while the insurance man tells his henchman "Bring in the gorilla and start the snow storm.What prompted this memory was a comment by an acquaintence they were thinking about purchasing cancer insurance.
I asked my friend if he had a history of cancer in his family and he replied NO - he was just thinking of being prudent.
All too often people fail to deal with the REAL ODDS before they make good judgements. There is a whole theory of decision making called "Bayseian" logic premised on making judgement based on mathematical odds.
An interesting site based on INJURY ODDS is: http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
Do your research carefully.
----------------------------------
Thursday, January 19, 2006
GAMBLING:
What are your odds of winning?
Keno ODDS - 29.5 to 1 (the worst of all possible gambling odds)
Slots ODDS - 2%-35%
Routlete ODDS - 5.26%
Blackjack ODDS - 10%-20% (according to the skill of the player)
Craps ODDS - 1.4%-16.7%
Poker ODDS - (varies by player skills) and probability of the deal (you have a 10 time greater chance of getting a Royal Flush (649,459) than winning a state lottery of over 7,000,000.)
Gambling houses don't care who wins because they scalp their percentage (vigorish) off every player (winner) or (looser).
-----------------------
What are your odds of winning?
Keno ODDS - 29.5 to 1 (the worst of all possible gambling odds)
Slots ODDS - 2%-35%
Routlete ODDS - 5.26%
Blackjack ODDS - 10%-20% (according to the skill of the player)
Craps ODDS - 1.4%-16.7%
Poker ODDS - (varies by player skills) and probability of the deal (you have a 10 time greater chance of getting a Royal Flush (649,459) than winning a state lottery of over 7,000,000.)
Gambling houses don't care who wins because they scalp their percentage (vigorish) off every player (winner) or (looser).
-----------------------
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
PART OF THE PROBLEM:
The old quotation "If your not part of the solution you are part of the problem" still holds true today.
Years ago an impasse with the support role of a Systems Analyst came to a head and required the intervention of our supervisor.
As the two of us sat in the supervisor's office I asked the Technician as to WHY he would not answer the technical questions that I asked of him. He looked at our supervisor and said "IF I tell you the answers you will tell others (implying I would take the credit) and they won't need me."
Agasp I told him that hopefully he was acquiring new knowledge every day and that I would always need to reply on his accumulated skill sets.
Sadly, he did not see it that way. Our supervisor told him that either he needed to make a change in his belief or to move on. He moved on - to everyone's satisfaction.
No one is indespensible. Your value increases geometrically in any organization (work, home, school, etc.) as others preceive your contributions to the whole.
----------------------------
The old quotation "If your not part of the solution you are part of the problem" still holds true today.
Years ago an impasse with the support role of a Systems Analyst came to a head and required the intervention of our supervisor.
As the two of us sat in the supervisor's office I asked the Technician as to WHY he would not answer the technical questions that I asked of him. He looked at our supervisor and said "IF I tell you the answers you will tell others (implying I would take the credit) and they won't need me."
Agasp I told him that hopefully he was acquiring new knowledge every day and that I would always need to reply on his accumulated skill sets.
Sadly, he did not see it that way. Our supervisor told him that either he needed to make a change in his belief or to move on. He moved on - to everyone's satisfaction.
No one is indespensible. Your value increases geometrically in any organization (work, home, school, etc.) as others preceive your contributions to the whole.
----------------------------
COMMUNICATION:
Many years ago a fellow colleague was attempting to make copies of an operating system. He had spent approximately an hour without success while the support technician walked by a dozen times. When I came into the room I asked him "what was the problem" and listening to the explaination told him "WHY" his copy method didn't work and what he needed to do.
What seemed amazing to me was that the TECHNICIAN was working not ten feet away. When I asked the TECHNICIAN as to WHY he did not help him he replied "He didn't ask!"
Communicating problems and asking for help is not a fault - it is a skill which many people need to acknowledge and use in their daily lives.(And yes, it was the same Technician above.)
------------------------
Many years ago a fellow colleague was attempting to make copies of an operating system. He had spent approximately an hour without success while the support technician walked by a dozen times. When I came into the room I asked him "what was the problem" and listening to the explaination told him "WHY" his copy method didn't work and what he needed to do.
What seemed amazing to me was that the TECHNICIAN was working not ten feet away. When I asked the TECHNICIAN as to WHY he did not help him he replied "He didn't ask!"
Communicating problems and asking for help is not a fault - it is a skill which many people need to acknowledge and use in their daily lives.(And yes, it was the same Technician above.)
------------------------
Monday, January 16, 2006
WHAT IF:
What IF you awoke this morning to hear that the Pope, dalal Lama, Pat Roberts, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim, and a half-dozen other religious leaders all had the same epiphany - "That God told them to tell their followers to share their wealth with the world's poor and to spend the rest of their lives in prayer awaiting the end of the world."
What would you do? What do you think the majority of people would do? (So do I)
----------------------------
What IF you awoke this morning to hear that the Pope, dalal Lama, Pat Roberts, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim, and a half-dozen other religious leaders all had the same epiphany - "That God told them to tell their followers to share their wealth with the world's poor and to spend the rest of their lives in prayer awaiting the end of the world."
What would you do? What do you think the majority of people would do? (So do I)
----------------------------
Sunday, January 15, 2006
GOOD TEACHING METHOD:
I have always been a firm believer in the Madeline Hunter Theory of Instruction. Even though instructional methods are often fluid in the educational arena I believe these tenets are useful where ever training takes place (school, work, or home.)
* Prepare with objectives and standards
* Tell your students what you plan on teaching
* Teach it by relating it to what your students already know (a hook)
* Have your students state (or demonstrate) what they have learned (guided practice)
* Finally you summarize what they should have learned (closure)
* Independent practice
(This is my simple summary of this instructional method.)
http://www.humboldt.edu/~tha1/hunter-eei.html
------------------------
I have always been a firm believer in the Madeline Hunter Theory of Instruction. Even though instructional methods are often fluid in the educational arena I believe these tenets are useful where ever training takes place (school, work, or home.)
* Prepare with objectives and standards
* Tell your students what you plan on teaching
* Teach it by relating it to what your students already know (a hook)
* Have your students state (or demonstrate) what they have learned (guided practice)
* Finally you summarize what they should have learned (closure)
* Independent practice
(This is my simple summary of this instructional method.)
http://www.humboldt.edu/~tha1/hunter-eei.html
------------------------
Friday, January 13, 2006
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
NET WORTH:
"Net worth is total assets minus total liabilities."
All too often people think that living in a big house, driving an expensive car, sending your children (or self) to an expensive vaction or school constitutes weath. This is often the farthest thing from the truth.
Putting down on paper your assets and liablilities will give you a "heads up" to your financial situation. Reviewing those figures AT LEAST twice a year is necessary if a person intends to retire with adequate resources. This is also essential to any estate planning.
----------------
"Net worth is total assets minus total liabilities."
All too often people think that living in a big house, driving an expensive car, sending your children (or self) to an expensive vaction or school constitutes weath. This is often the farthest thing from the truth.
Putting down on paper your assets and liablilities will give you a "heads up" to your financial situation. Reviewing those figures AT LEAST twice a year is necessary if a person intends to retire with adequate resources. This is also essential to any estate planning.
----------------
Monday, January 09, 2006
SECOND OPINIONS:
Whenever a person hears something they don't like they are inclined to ask for a "second opinion." Keeping an open mind and weighing "all the options" are best achieved if a "second opinion" is always included in any decision making operation. Hearing what you WANT TO HEAR does not it is RIGHT.
Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong. ~Dandemis
----------------------------
Whenever a person hears something they don't like they are inclined to ask for a "second opinion." Keeping an open mind and weighing "all the options" are best achieved if a "second opinion" is always included in any decision making operation. Hearing what you WANT TO HEAR does not it is RIGHT.
Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong. ~Dandemis
----------------------------
Sunday, January 08, 2006
WHAT WOULD HE SAY?
For the people in the world who follow the teachings of Jesus what do you think he would say about the following events if he returned to earth today? Explain why?
American war with Iraq (preemptive strikes)
Treatment of the World's poor? (27,000+ people who starve to death everyday)
Racism/Sexism
The belief of various Christian demoninations declaring their beliefs as superior to other Christians and/or other religions.
The worth of “super rich” individuals in the worth
The gluttony livestyle of believers while others in the world starve.
The building of costly churches and princely paid religious leaders.
The American consumption of 50% of the world’s energy resources.
(and NO I am not a Christian)
------------------—
For the people in the world who follow the teachings of Jesus what do you think he would say about the following events if he returned to earth today? Explain why?
American war with Iraq (preemptive strikes)
Treatment of the World's poor? (27,000+ people who starve to death everyday)
Racism/Sexism
The belief of various Christian demoninations declaring their beliefs as superior to other Christians and/or other religions.
The worth of “super rich” individuals in the worth
The gluttony livestyle of believers while others in the world starve.
The building of costly churches and princely paid religious leaders.
The American consumption of 50% of the world’s energy resources.
(and NO I am not a Christian)
------------------—
Saturday, January 07, 2006
“HOW WOULD WE KNOW WHEN WE HAVE WON?”
Recently an interesting show on the History Channel explored the debate among President Lyndon Johnson and his Presidental Cabinet as to the merits of expanding the war in Vietnam.
Sec. McNamara led the verbal charge to prosecute the war else we would be viewed as “soft” to our enemies and would risk further aggression. As the banter filled the room Sec. Ramsey Clark stated he only had one question - “HOW WOULD WE KNOW WHEN WE HAVE WON?” (measureable objectives and outcomes)
Sec. Clark did not prevail, and the promise by McNamara of “technological supremacy” over an inferior enemy lured Johnson into the promise of a “quick victory.” Sadly it proved to be an expensive and unresolved war.
History is always in a cycle as recent events with Iraq have proven. A “C+” scholar as President, who is surrounded by incompetent political appointees, and chronies with agendies of personal gain, have all failed to address this same question. One only had to watch the “occupation” of Bagdad in the first weeks of the war as residents looted banks, stores, museums, and palaces while American troops only stood by offering no intervention because they had no instructions.
LESSONS LEARNED:
The failure to have good intelligence, no exacting occupation plan or an “exit strategy” prior to the beginning of the Iraq war has only compounded any attempt to make a wise exit today. The quagmire we are in today was foreseeable, but any correction made “on the fly” takes three times the effort and ten times the cost in resources.
Whether a war or even a business strategy it is important to know the “milestone” of your goals. Important questions need to be raised and dissenting questions answered prior to the making of such decisions.
Things are not going to get any better in Iraq with our current leadership (Presidental or Congressional). The war will continue....
NOTE: Not one person in the Bush administration was fired for the failure to supply the correct pre-war Iraq intelligence.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0903-04.htm
(for some sad reflections of the Bush Presidency)
--------------------–
Recently an interesting show on the History Channel explored the debate among President Lyndon Johnson and his Presidental Cabinet as to the merits of expanding the war in Vietnam.
Sec. McNamara led the verbal charge to prosecute the war else we would be viewed as “soft” to our enemies and would risk further aggression. As the banter filled the room Sec. Ramsey Clark stated he only had one question - “HOW WOULD WE KNOW WHEN WE HAVE WON?” (measureable objectives and outcomes)
Sec. Clark did not prevail, and the promise by McNamara of “technological supremacy” over an inferior enemy lured Johnson into the promise of a “quick victory.” Sadly it proved to be an expensive and unresolved war.
History is always in a cycle as recent events with Iraq have proven. A “C+” scholar as President, who is surrounded by incompetent political appointees, and chronies with agendies of personal gain, have all failed to address this same question. One only had to watch the “occupation” of Bagdad in the first weeks of the war as residents looted banks, stores, museums, and palaces while American troops only stood by offering no intervention because they had no instructions.
LESSONS LEARNED:
The failure to have good intelligence, no exacting occupation plan or an “exit strategy” prior to the beginning of the Iraq war has only compounded any attempt to make a wise exit today. The quagmire we are in today was foreseeable, but any correction made “on the fly” takes three times the effort and ten times the cost in resources.
Whether a war or even a business strategy it is important to know the “milestone” of your goals. Important questions need to be raised and dissenting questions answered prior to the making of such decisions.
Things are not going to get any better in Iraq with our current leadership (Presidental or Congressional). The war will continue....
NOTE: Not one person in the Bush administration was fired for the failure to supply the correct pre-war Iraq intelligence.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0903-04.htm
(for some sad reflections of the Bush Presidency)
--------------------–
Friday, January 06, 2006
MARRIAGE, CAREERS & DIVORCE:
Today a friend informed my wife that her husband wanted a divorce leaving her and her 3 pre-adolescent children out to lunch.
She was really despondent (as she deserved to be). She had given up her career to become a stay at home mom and now her world had become undone - in more ways than she realized.
She will probably receive some support until the children are of age (18) but thereafter she will be on her own. And unless she gets something in the settlement this may even affect her retirement options.
LESSON: Never asssume that marriage is permanent. Over 50% of marriages in the US will fail. A women can protect herself by acquiring/keeping/updating her marketable skills even if she stays home. Community colleges and part-time jobs offer intelligent security blankets.
-------------------------------
Today a friend informed my wife that her husband wanted a divorce leaving her and her 3 pre-adolescent children out to lunch.
She was really despondent (as she deserved to be). She had given up her career to become a stay at home mom and now her world had become undone - in more ways than she realized.
She will probably receive some support until the children are of age (18) but thereafter she will be on her own. And unless she gets something in the settlement this may even affect her retirement options.
LESSON: Never asssume that marriage is permanent. Over 50% of marriages in the US will fail. A women can protect herself by acquiring/keeping/updating her marketable skills even if she stays home. Community colleges and part-time jobs offer intelligent security blankets.
-------------------------------
ON KEEPING YOUR WORTH IN PERSPECTIVE:
In ancient Rome each returning victorious general was provided a triumphant parade through the streets of Rome riding on a golden chariot. As the hordes of citizens screamed their approval a slave (appointed by the Senate) repeated over and over again to him "Remember - All men are mortal."
-----------------------------
In ancient Rome each returning victorious general was provided a triumphant parade through the streets of Rome riding on a golden chariot. As the hordes of citizens screamed their approval a slave (appointed by the Senate) repeated over and over again to him "Remember - All men are mortal."
-----------------------------
THE WISDOM OF SOLOMAN:
A mother came home one day and told her two children they could have a treat for doing their chores. When she produced the treat (a cupcake) the children starting bickering over who would get the most. With the wisdom of only a mother she declared to the first child "You get to divide the cake into two equal pieces - your brother gets first choice of the pieces." Needless to say the pieces were equal.
-----------------------------
A mother came home one day and told her two children they could have a treat for doing their chores. When she produced the treat (a cupcake) the children starting bickering over who would get the most. With the wisdom of only a mother she declared to the first child "You get to divide the cake into two equal pieces - your brother gets first choice of the pieces." Needless to say the pieces were equal.
-----------------------------
PERSPECTIVE:
I was reading an article today that over 1.5 BILLION people require Kerocene lamps to read at night. That over 800 million people in India don't even have electricity. That over 200,000 people are still homeless following the 2005 Tsunami. That 20% of the world's population lives below the poverty level of $2 a day. That another roughly 20% of the population are at the poverty level.
It reminds me just how unimportant my problems are in PERSPECTIVE.
--------------------
I was reading an article today that over 1.5 BILLION people require Kerocene lamps to read at night. That over 800 million people in India don't even have electricity. That over 200,000 people are still homeless following the 2005 Tsunami. That 20% of the world's population lives below the poverty level of $2 a day. That another roughly 20% of the population are at the poverty level.
It reminds me just how unimportant my problems are in PERSPECTIVE.
--------------------
LONGEVITY:
Yesterday I went to the hospital for a checkup (an MRI check for cancer 2 years ago.) What amazed me was the long line of OLD people (I guess including myself) awaiting treatment to preserve their lives into an indefinite future.
One on-line study suggests that according to Census figures there has been a 63 percent increase in centerians since 1990, and the number could exceed 1 million by 2030 and top 4 million by 2050.
Living longer may be important to some people but factoring that issue into your retirement is why so many corporations are divesting themselves from retirement funds. What if I live to be a 100+ will my retirement funds, investments, etc. meet that need? (Merely assuming that you continue in good to moderate health and have health insurance.)
In 1900 Life expectancy was only 47 years, while someone born in 2002 is expected to reach the age of 77. The upward curve only seems to continue.
I want to live as long as the QUALITY of my life is meaningful to ME and I am self-sufficient. I don't WANT to be merely kept alive and rolled around a retirement home in a mindless state. (Visit a retirement home for a sobriety check to your future retirement.)
Neither the Government nor retirement funds will be able to meet these future needs. Every individual needs to balance these factors into their retirement years.
Note: One in Six companies on the NY StockExchange are health care related. (2006)
---------------------------------
Yesterday I went to the hospital for a checkup (an MRI check for cancer 2 years ago.) What amazed me was the long line of OLD people (I guess including myself) awaiting treatment to preserve their lives into an indefinite future.
One on-line study suggests that according to Census figures there has been a 63 percent increase in centerians since 1990, and the number could exceed 1 million by 2030 and top 4 million by 2050.
Living longer may be important to some people but factoring that issue into your retirement is why so many corporations are divesting themselves from retirement funds. What if I live to be a 100+ will my retirement funds, investments, etc. meet that need? (Merely assuming that you continue in good to moderate health and have health insurance.)
In 1900 Life expectancy was only 47 years, while someone born in 2002 is expected to reach the age of 77. The upward curve only seems to continue.
I want to live as long as the QUALITY of my life is meaningful to ME and I am self-sufficient. I don't WANT to be merely kept alive and rolled around a retirement home in a mindless state. (Visit a retirement home for a sobriety check to your future retirement.)
Neither the Government nor retirement funds will be able to meet these future needs. Every individual needs to balance these factors into their retirement years.
Note: One in Six companies on the NY StockExchange are health care related. (2006)
---------------------------------
Monday, January 02, 2006
FAILURE AND DETERMINATION:
• After Fred Astaire’s first screen test, the memo from the testing director of MGM, dated 1933 said, “Can’t act! Slight balk! Can dance a little!” Astaire kept that memo over the fireplace in his Beverly Hill Home.
• Louisa May Alcott, the author of “Little Women,” was encouraged to find work as a servant or semstress by her family.
• Beethoven handled the violin awkwqardly and preferred playing his own compositions instead of improving his technique. His teacher called him hopeless as a composer.
• The parents of the famous opera singer Enrico Caruso wanted him to be an engineer. His teacher said he had no voice at all and could not sing.
• Charles Darwin, father of the Theory of Evolution, gave up a medical career and was told by his father, “You care for nothing but shooting, dogs, and rat catching.” In his autobiography, Darwin wrote, “I was considered by all my masters and by my father, a very ordinary boy, rather below the common standard in intellect.”
• Walt Disney was fired by a newspaper editor for a lack of ideas. Walt Disney also went bankrupct several times before he built Disneyland.
• Thomas Edison’ts teachers said he was too stupid to learn anything.
• Albert Einstein did not speak until he was four years old and didn’t read until he was seven. His teacher described him as “mentally slow, unsocialable and adrift forever in his foolish dreams.” He was expelled and was refused admittance to the Zurich Polytechnic School.
• Louis Pasteur was only a mediocre pupil in undergraduate studies and ranked 15th out of 22 in chemistry.
• Isacc Newton did very poorly in grade school.
• The sculptor Rodin’s father said, “I have an idiot for a son.” Described as the worst pupil in the school. Rodin failed three times to secure admittance to the school of art. His uncle called him uneducable.
• Leo Tolstoy, author of War and Peace, flunked out of college. He was described as “both unable and unwilling to learn.”
• Henry Ford failed and went broke five times before he finally succeeded.
• Babe Ruth, considered by sports historians to be the greatest athlete of all time and famous for the setting the home run record, also hold the record for strikeouts.
• Winston Churchill failed sixth grade. He did not become Prime Minister of England until was 62, and then only after a lifetime of defeats and setbacks. His greatest contributions came when he was a “senior citizen.”
• Richard Hooker worked for seven years on his humorous war novel, M*A*S*H, only to have it reject by 21 publishers before Morrow decided to publish it. It became a runaway bestseller, spawning ablockbusting movie and a highly successful television series.
• R.H. Macy failed seven times before his store in New York caught on.
LESSON LEARNED? There is IQ and I WILL....but not always in tandem. klf
Consider This.... Chicken Soup for the Soul
From: Chicken Soup for the Soul™ © 1993
by Jack Canfield and Mark Victor Hansen
Health Communications, Inc. P 228-230
• After Fred Astaire’s first screen test, the memo from the testing director of MGM, dated 1933 said, “Can’t act! Slight balk! Can dance a little!” Astaire kept that memo over the fireplace in his Beverly Hill Home.
• Louisa May Alcott, the author of “Little Women,” was encouraged to find work as a servant or semstress by her family.
• Beethoven handled the violin awkwqardly and preferred playing his own compositions instead of improving his technique. His teacher called him hopeless as a composer.
• The parents of the famous opera singer Enrico Caruso wanted him to be an engineer. His teacher said he had no voice at all and could not sing.
• Charles Darwin, father of the Theory of Evolution, gave up a medical career and was told by his father, “You care for nothing but shooting, dogs, and rat catching.” In his autobiography, Darwin wrote, “I was considered by all my masters and by my father, a very ordinary boy, rather below the common standard in intellect.”
• Walt Disney was fired by a newspaper editor for a lack of ideas. Walt Disney also went bankrupct several times before he built Disneyland.
• Thomas Edison’ts teachers said he was too stupid to learn anything.
• Albert Einstein did not speak until he was four years old and didn’t read until he was seven. His teacher described him as “mentally slow, unsocialable and adrift forever in his foolish dreams.” He was expelled and was refused admittance to the Zurich Polytechnic School.
• Louis Pasteur was only a mediocre pupil in undergraduate studies and ranked 15th out of 22 in chemistry.
• Isacc Newton did very poorly in grade school.
• The sculptor Rodin’s father said, “I have an idiot for a son.” Described as the worst pupil in the school. Rodin failed three times to secure admittance to the school of art. His uncle called him uneducable.
• Leo Tolstoy, author of War and Peace, flunked out of college. He was described as “both unable and unwilling to learn.”
• Henry Ford failed and went broke five times before he finally succeeded.
• Babe Ruth, considered by sports historians to be the greatest athlete of all time and famous for the setting the home run record, also hold the record for strikeouts.
• Winston Churchill failed sixth grade. He did not become Prime Minister of England until was 62, and then only after a lifetime of defeats and setbacks. His greatest contributions came when he was a “senior citizen.”
• Richard Hooker worked for seven years on his humorous war novel, M*A*S*H, only to have it reject by 21 publishers before Morrow decided to publish it. It became a runaway bestseller, spawning ablockbusting movie and a highly successful television series.
• R.H. Macy failed seven times before his store in New York caught on.
LESSON LEARNED? There is IQ and I WILL....but not always in tandem. klf
Consider This.... Chicken Soup for the Soul
From: Chicken Soup for the Soul™ © 1993
by Jack Canfield and Mark Victor Hansen
Health Communications, Inc. P 228-230
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